Social networks are a game of 1 10:05 on Saturday

Social networks are like telephone networks in 1900, or video disc formats in 2000: the consumer doesn’t really benefit from competition. The early years might be a fierce competition over the best features (or the best marketing machine), but when a critical mass has flocked on to one network, switching to another network becomes too cumbersome to justify the effort. The other networks wither and die off.

Given that many services (music players, Spotify vs. iTunes Ping, come to mind) are trying to get advantage from social networks, at the same time they are potentially creating a market with only one ultimate winner. That’s what I call a gamble.

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